《那些古怪又让人忧心的问题》第39期:普通感冒(2)

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A more practical-though not necessarily cheaper-solution would be to give everyone biohazard suits. That way, we could walk around and interact, even allowing some normal economic activity to continue:

另一种更加实际但不一定更便宜的解决方法是给每个人都发一套防化服。这样我们就可以四处溜达并与其他人接触,甚至还可以进行一些正常的经济活动。

But let 8217;s set aside the practicality and address Sarah 8217;s actual question: Would it work?

我们现在先不管全球性隔离是否可行,而是来看看萨拉提的问题的核心:这样做可行吗?

To help figure out the answer, I talked to Professor Ian M. Mackay, a virology expert from the Australian Infectious Diseases Research Centre at the University of Queensland.

为了找到答案,我找到了昆士兰大学澳大利亚传染性疾病研究中心病毒学专家伊安•M.麦凯博士。

Dr. Mackay said that this idea is actually somewhat reasonable, from a purely biological point of view. He said that rhinoviruses-and other RNA respiratory viruses-are completely eliminated from the body by the immune system; they do not linger after infection. Furthermore, we don 8217;t seem to pass any rhinoviruses back and forth with animals, which means there are no other species that can serve as reservoirs of our colds. If rhinoviruses don 8217;t have enough humans to move between, they die out.

麦凯博士表示,这个想法从生物学角度来看其实是可行的,鼻病毒和其他呼吸道RNA病毒将会被免疫系统彻底清除,在被感染后人们也不会跑到其他地方去。另外,看起来我们不会与动物之间相互传播鼻病毒,这意味着感冒将不再有栖息之地。如果鼻病毒不能找到足够多的人进行传播,它最终就会消亡。

We 8217;ve actually seen this viral extinction in action in isolated populations. The remote islands of St. Kilda, far to the northwest of Scotland, for centuries hosted a population of about 100 people. The islands were visited by only a few boats a year, and suffered from an unusual syndrome called the cnatan-na-gall, or “stranger 8217;s cough.” For several centuries, the cough swept the island like clockwork every time a new boat arrived.

实际上,在偏远地区我们观察到了这种病毒消亡过程。在苏格兰遥远的西北角有一个叫作圣基尔达的小岛,几百年来人口一直维持在100人上下。每年只会有几艘船来到这个小岛,但一种叫作“cnatan-na-gall”(陌生人的咳嗽)的异常症状却一直困扰着这个小岛。几个世纪以来,每艘船的到来都肯定会造成一次席卷全岛的咳嗽大流行。

The exact cause of the outbreaks is unknown, but rhinoviruses were probably responsible for many of them. Every time a boat visited, it would introduce new strains of virus. These strains would sweep the islands, infecting virtually everyone. After several weeks, all the residents would have fresh immunity to those strains, and with nowhere to go, the viruses would die out.

疾病爆发的准确原因不得而知,但鼻病毒很有可能是其中很多起咳嗽爆发的元凶。每一艘造访小岛的船只都会带来新的病毒菌株,这些菌株会蔓延到整个小岛,几乎所有人都会被感染。几周后,所有的居民都发展出了抵御这种菌株的免疫力,之后无处可去的病毒就会消亡。

The same viral clearing would likely happen in any small and isolated population-for example, shipwreck survivors.

相同的病毒消亡很有可能会发生在人数较少而又相对隔离的群体中,一个例子便是船舶事故遇难者。

标签:   发布日期:2024-03-06 05:32:00  投稿会员:Aucao